Why Tadej Pogacar will win the Tour of Flanders!

Flanders is crazy about road cycling! For about a month, all Flemish media have been busy writing a new cycling story with the Ronde van Vlaanderen (Tour of Flanders) as its focal point.

The upcoming edition of "Vlaanderens Mooiste" seems to be even more legendary and heroic than the 105 previous editions. The "hat-trick" of Fiorenzi Magni in heroic weather conditions (1951), the "he rides 5km too fast for us" edition of Eddy Merckx (1975), the victory of weeping youngster Edwig Van Hooydonck (1989), ... will be covered by the dust of the explosive accelerations of the current generation on the nasty, cobbled climbs of the Flemish Ardennes.

The build-up to the climax (de Ronde) started with the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and from then on the Flemish media made sure the cycling story never got boring or monotonous until de Ronde itself. The Flemish TV channel Sporza brings first weekly the talk show "Extra Time Koers" and in this last week (yes) daily "Vive le vélo, Leve de Ronde", the Flemish newspapers fill in March more pages about the road cycling than "La Gazzetta dello Sport" over a whole calendar year. Even podcasts such as "de Koers is van ons", "Wuyts en Boonen", ... are created.

Thousands of juicy stories, well-founded opinions, small and big facts, ... are sent into the world and all this with a view to the most important side issue of the (Flemish) world "Who will win de Ronde on Sunday?".

Wout Van Aert, now elevated to the status of cycling demigod in Flanders, was undeniably put forward as the top favourite by many experts consulted during the above broadcasts or interviews immediately after "the exposition" on 26th of February. Tadej Pogacar's impressive win in the Strade Bianche and the early reappearance of that other great Mathieu van der Poel in Milano-San Remo are the motoric moments that Aristotle believes every good drama needs. The complications only complicate Van Aert's chances to win de Ronde.

Yes, top favourite Van Aert is in top shape and so is super talent Van der Poel after his victory yesterday in Dwars door Vlaanderen, but the first participation of two-time Tour winner Pogacar causes some concern for the Flandriens. Yesterday's apparent "chasse patat" of the latter can be seen as a good thing for the opponents. However, the explanation from the UAE camp after the race (Pogacar was held up by a crash) is just as plausible.

I see Pogacar's "reaching his limits" yesterday as an advantage for next Sunday and maybe it will make him use his strength a bit more sparingly. And the fact that it is his first participation, after Biniam Girmay's victory in Gent-Wevelgem, should not necessarily be seen as an obstacle.

And Pogacar is undeniably the best climber in the whole peloton. The way he attacked in the Strada Bianche on the gravel sector "Monte Santa Marie", since 2017 also called the "Settore Fabian Cancellara", did not only impress Julian Alaphilippe. Since this sector was included in the Gran Fondo Strade Bianche route for the first time this year, I could experience that it's much harder than the sequence of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg. It is no less than 10 km long and contains 3 "Paterbergs".

On the less steep climbs like the Oude Kwaremont, Van Aert, van der Poel, ... will undoubtedly be able to keep up but what if lightweight Pogacar (he weighs +/- 10kg less than his main rivals) decides to pull through from the beginning of the last passage on the Paterberg ?

Then I don't see a lot of riders able to follow him and a subsequent time trial of 13km to the finish in Oudenaarde shouldn't be a problem for Pogacar either. Moreover, the others will have to get rid of Pogacar because it's better to avoid to go to the finish line with this hungry youngster (remember Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2021).

The other favourites Van Aert, his teammates Christophe Laporte and Tiesj Benoot, van der Poel, Kasper Asgreen, ... will all benefit from making it a long and hard race and this while we regularly sip our Kwaremont and grab some "Flandrien cheese" towards the apotheosis.

But first, we will ride our own Tour of Flanders on Saturday, and of course we all hope that the ominous news of a sick Van Aert is an early April Fool's joke.

photo @tadejpogacar